L'avenir en question

L'avenir en question

Changer pour survivre 

L'ouvrage: l'avenir en question se trouve sur Amazon , Decititre, chaPitre ou à la FNAC
A présent disponible sur Kindle.

Jamais le monde n’a présenté un visage aussi paradoxal. Tandis que le progrès technique s’accélère à un rythme vertigineux, la crise économique et financière s’accompagne d’une grave crise écologique et d’une raréfaction des ressources naturelles.

   Des solutions existent pour assurer la préservation des ressources et de l’environnement, tout en poursuivant l’évolution vers un monde de plus en plus interconnecté et complexe.L’ouvrage analyse les changements considérables auxquels la société est actuellement confrontée. Ces changements sont pour une part induits par des progrès technologiques de plus en plus rapides. Ils sont par ailleurs rendus indispensables par la nécessité de préserver l’environnement. Les transformations à mener sont d’une telle ampleur, que la crise actuelle apparait de plus en plus comme une crise systémique annonçant un changement de paradigme ou de « civilisation », l’alternative étant en cas d’échec, un effondrement à une échelle planétaire. Nous sommes ainsi entrés dans une période d’instabilité et de transition, conduisant à une bifurcation possible, qui mène soit à un niveau supérieur de complexité et d’organisation, soit au contraire à un effondrement.

   Les changements à opérer concernent l’ensemble du système économique. Les  technologies numériques font évoluer la nature des activités et l’organisation de la société. Les relations se multiplient entre individus et groupes humains à l’échelle de la planète. Le rôle du savoir et de la création devient de plus en plus important. En même temps, l’humanité est confrontée à un ensemble de menaces sans précédent, liées à la difficulté de maîtriser l’avenir, de contrôler les risques entraînés par les nouveaux développements technologiques et de protéger l’environnement. A un niveau personnel, s’exprime la volonté  de « changer de vie », d’agir et de se comporter autrement, se référer à de nouvelles valeurs et mener une vie plus épanouissante.

   Les progrès récents dans l’étude des systèmes complexes aident à mieux comprendre la nature de l’évolution  en cours. L’organisation économique et sociale devient de plus en plus complexe, en raison de la mondialisation, de la diversification des produits, de la multiplication des organisations, ainsi que de l’interaction croissante de chaque individu avec son environnement. Ce n’est qu’en atteignant un niveau de complexité plus élevé qu’il sera possible de surmonter les défis actuels. Il est nécessaire d’engager une transition globale, impliquant des changements profonds dans l’économie et les modes de vie. L’innovation et la créativité constituent les atouts essentiels pour réussir cette transition et échapper ainsi à l’effondrement qui nous menace.

   La transition engagée ne peut toutefois réussir, qu’à condition de prendre en compte des critères d’intérêt général, la nécessité d’une plus grande coopération et l’impératif écologique de préservation de l’environnement. Même si l’évolution vers une plus grande complexité parait inéluctable, il faut parvenir à rendre cette complexité « soutenable », c'est-à-dire compatible avec le bonheur des individus et la survie de la biosphère.

   Partant d’une analyse systémique et globale, l’ouvrage examine la nature des transformations qui pourraient permettre à l’humanité de franchir avec succès la transition dans laquelle elle est engagée, tout en considérant l’ensemble des facteurs qui rendent une issue positive encore incertaine.

In the book « Future at stake » published in French  (L'avenir en question, Armand Collin, 2011), are addressed some of the major challenges humanity has to deal with:

• The present economic and ecological crisis
• The evolution towards an increased complexity
• The global transition needed for avoiding a collapse
• The role of innovation and creativity
• The way towards sustainability
• Possible future evolutions

The following topics are covered in the book:

-      In the first chapter, the current situation is assessed and discussed. The present organization of the world economic system appears as non sustainable. Environment degradation, loss of biodiversity, local pollution, rarefaction of natural resources and global warming lead to a major risk of collapse at a global level, if appropriate decisions are not taken in due time.  

Disruptive changes are needed, in order to provide appropriate solutions to the present economic, social and environmental challenges.

-    In Chapter 2, the required changes are presented and analysed. These changes involve transformations not only of the technologies which are used and of the economic system, but also of the way of life. 

The progress of scientific knowledge and environmental constraints represent the main factors of transformation in the future. Considering each of these two factors can lead to a very different vision.

-    A first view, which is presented in Chapter 3, is based upon the idea that technological progress will be able to solve the problems which are encountered by the human society. For those who support this view, Nanotechnologies, Biotechnologies together with the technologies of Information and Cognition (NBIC) converge towards a new paradigm, which will enable humanity to overcome the main problems it encounters. From an extrapolation of the trends occurring in the digital world, a boundless expansion or even a “Singularity” is expected.

-   A more pessimistic view is held by others who fear that technology could lead to an irreversible destruction of our environment, which would mean that human civilization will be brought to an end. In order to remain within the limits which are imposed by nature, they consider that the priority is to reduce our needs and our consumption level. This vision of “degrowth” is presented in Chapter 4. It is often advocated in Europe, where the fears concerning technological risks are the most widespread.

In order to reduce the level of the risks to be encountered, the degrowth movement followers recommend to limit the consumption of energy and raw materials, while raising the efforts to protect the environment.

-    It seems legitimate to try to conciliate the economic progress with environment protection. The possibility of following in the future a path which takes in account these two factors is discussed in Chapter 5. In fact, it seems possible to decouple to a large extent the pursuit of the economic progress from a growth of the consumption of natural resources. The progression towards an increasing complexity will continue, due to a continuous increase of knowledge and the permanent creation of new devices. Society will also continue to evolve through the formation of new links between people and also new connections with surrounding devices.

Such an evolution can remain compatible with the environment preservation, if it does not imply a similar progression of the GDP and of the consumption of natural resources.

-   The development of new links at the planetary level can help to a better understanding between people and to a development of collective intelligence. The implications of such a transformation are considered in Chapter 6. It leads to a more complex world, by helping to create new structures and organizations worldwide. It can contribute also to bring more democracy and more empathy between citizens from different nations.

-   The evolution resulting from scientific and technological progress can help to build a knowledge and creation society, which is described in Chapter 7. This increased knowledge will help to understand the major issues facing humanity and to find the appropriate solutions. The role of creativity will increase in all areas and will help to achieve personal fulfilment. Thus, it will contribute to drive society towards a more open and collaborative organization, no more based only upon the search of profit.  

-      In order to achieve an evolution operating in symbiotic relationship with the environment, an appropriate policy must be defined and implemented, as it is not possible to rely only upon the market mechanism. Such a policy implies to reduce the consumption of non renewable resources and to get as close as possible to a “zero waste” situation. 

The means which are needed for preserving natural resources are reviewed in Chapter 8. They include the different options for reducing the consumption of non renewable raw materials, recycling used materials whenever possible, achieving an integration of energy and mass fluxes and optimizing the use of bio resources.

-        The supply of energy from a sustainable source is in any case needed, as energy can only be partially recycled, due to the production of entropy. A first priority is to reduce the energy consumption by accepting a less energy intensive way of life and by improving the effectiveness of the use of energy. Low carbon energy sources are required. Nuclear and renewable energy sources are reviewed in Chapter 9. The possibility of accelerating the transition towards renewable energy sources is assessed. The use of wind and solar energy sources is presently limited due to the fact that they are intermittent and provide comparatively low energy fluxes. The present developments in the area of new materials and nanotechnologies could help to induce future progress, especially in the areas of the photovoltaic conversion of solar energy and energy storage, thus helping to achieve a global transition towards renewable energy sources. As energy production will be more distributed, “smart” grids will be required at a large scale.

-      The consequences of such future changes upon the way of life are examined in Chapter 10. The issues of urbanism, environment and new economic activities require a systemic approach.

New urban concepts aim at a better integration of housing within the environment, but also at creating new links between inhabitants and at helping creativity and self-actualization. The city of tomorrow will be an eco-city, but also an intelligent city, which will bring to its inhabitants a wide range of opportunities for interaction and creation. It will become a reality, only if our society is able to eliminate slum cities, where poverty and violence predominate.  

-    Scenarios for future evolution are presented in Chapter 11. The global outcome remains uncertain, as human and geopolitical factors are highly unpredictable. It is only by being able to take into account the general interest, that it will be possible to ensure a sustainable (viable) future. Otherwise, conflicts of growing intensity can be expected, resulting in a major breakdown. Ignoring the need for an increased complexity would generate a similar outcome.

The efforts required for overcoming the major threats are huge but factors of hope remain, as a planetary consciousness is emerging.

In any case, urgent changes are needed which require an international cooperation. The possibility of achieving these changes remains challenging. The transformation of the mentality and behaviour of human beings is comparatively slow. Therefore, the capacity of humanity to adapt itself in due time for avoiding a major crisis remains still an open question.