Ce blog rassemble des informations et des réflexions sur l'avenir qui nous attend.

This blog presents informations and views about the future.

Affichage des articles dont le libellé est complexe. Afficher tous les articles
Affichage des articles dont le libellé est complexe. Afficher tous les articles

mercredi 26 décembre 2012

L'avenir de l'économie / The future of the economy

TThe idea that the economy progresses through a self-organisation process is now quite widespread. Friedrich von Hayek has sintroduced the concept of a "spontaneous" order,  which he considers as the only appropriate in the case of complex systems. In his viw, any political decision at the level of the state is doomed to be unappropriate. His ideas has been followed and often oversimplified by Milton Friedman and the representatives of the "school of Chicago". They form the basis for the neoliberal system, which governx presently the world Market.  How can such a system preserve the general interest, the environment or human solidarity. In his book "L'avenir de l'économie", Jean-Pierre Dupuy introduces the idea that within a self-organised system, self-transcendant landmarks might emerge. Although, it is possible to build complexity upon multiple interactions, it seems much more difficult to imagine how moral values could be introduced in such a way. Although self-organisation is indeed the best way to deal with everyday issues , when big issues, such as climate chane, are at stake, it is most dangerous to rely upon self-organisation or self-transcendance. It is clearly the reponsability of political leaders, and also all citizens, to set at the center of the economy values which are needed for preserving the general interest, the environment or human solidarity.


L’idée que la société progresse par « auto-organisation» est maintenant largement répandue. Elle constitue le point de départ de la théorie des systèmes sociaux du sociologue allemand Niklas Luhmann[1]. Pour Niklas Luhmann, une telle capacité d’auto-organisation de la société est liée avant tout à ses facultés de communication à travers un langage. L’ordre global d’un système auto-organisé s’établit spontanément à partir des interactions entre les différents éléments, individus ou organisations, qui le constituent. Ainsi, les structures complexes du monde vivant relèvent d’un processus d’évolution auto-organisé, à travers le mécanisme de sélection naturelle décrit par Darwin.

lundi 3 octobre 2011

La résilience de Gaïa / Gaia resilience

James Lovelock and Lynn Margulis have formulated the Gaia hypothesis already in 1979, refering to the Greek Godess of the Earth. According to this hypothesis (or theory), the Earth is controling the conditions required for life throuh regulating mechanisms. The Earth is thus compared to a living organism, able to maintain homeostatic conditions. What can we think about such an hypothesis, about thirty years later? Even, if a number of conditions required for maintaining life, such as the salinity of the ocean, the atmosphere composition, the global surface temperature, appear as controlled by negative retroaction mechanisms (which tend to drive back the system towards equilibrium, when it is perturbated), it would be certainly wrong to apply such a comparison in a too litteral way. This hypothesis presents nevertheless the advantage of helping us to transform our mental representation system. During the industrial era all systems were viewed as machines, and we might be tempted to consider Earth as such a machine. The metaphor of the living organism is much more appropriate in the case of a complex ecosystem, as it helps us to understand better what happens when the system is perturbated. It leads us to think in terms of resilience. The system can withstand a perturbation within a certain domain. Outside this domain negative retroaction mechanisms do not operate anymore and can even be replaced  by positive retroaction mechanisms which make the system unstable. The system cannot maintain its operating conditions (canot survive). This a situation we encounter with global warming. Therefore it is our duty to preserve and even to reinforce the resilience of Gaia.

Le chimiste britannique James Lovelock et  la microbiologiste américaine Lynn Margulis ont formulé l'hypothèse Gaïa dès 1979. Cette hypothèse fait référence à la déesse mère de la mythologie grecque. Elle consiste à affirmer qu'à travers un certain nombre de mécanismes autorégulateurs, la Terre contrôle les conditions nécessaires à la survie de la biosphère. La Terre est ainsi comparée (ou assimilée) à un organisme vivant capable de maintenir des conditions homéostatiques.