collapsologie/collapsology

As early as the 1970s, a collapse by depletion of natural resources was considered in the Meadows Report about the limits to growth. More recently, Jared Diamond has linked the collapse of various past civilizations, represented in particular by the ancient Mayans in Mexico, the Vikings living in Greenland or the inhabitants of Easter Island, to a lack of adaptation to a critical change in their environment. Our current globalized society could suffer the same fate, if it fails to overcome the environmental challenges it faces, including the major challenge of global warming. The theme of collapse sparked a whole current of thought, sometimes called collapsology. It is usually the ecological causes of a collapse that are retained and analyzed. However, other causes could also cause a catastrophic end of the Western civilization. One of those who has studied the issue, Dmitry Orlov, distinguishes five stages of collapse: financial, commercial, political, social and cultural. According to this American author born in Russia, a collapse similar to that experienced by the USSR could occur in the United States, due to an inadequate economic policy in the context of the decline of oil resources. A collapse could also occur as a result of a major global conflict, resulting in a sharp worsening of international geopolitical tensions. By taking a step back, we can link a collapse to three main causes, related to an ecological, social or moral crisis,. The ecological crisis leading to a lack of resources is the one studied by Jared Diamond, and this is the most widespread theme investigated today. A crisis of the social organization is the one advanced by Tainter, notably to explain the fall of the Roman Empire. According to Tainter, increasing complexity in a vast empire is becoming more and more difficult to control and is leading to a growing share of unproductive spending. This thesis is in fact unconvincing, because the entire evolution of modern society has relied on a prodigious rise in complexity. It has even been shown that complexity and material prosperity are largely related. Finally, a third type of explanation is linked to a decline, associated with a moral crisis. Such an analysis has been done in the past by authors as prestigious as the historian Arnold Toynbee, the thinker of civilizations Oswald Splengler or the sociologist Pitirim Sorokin. The fear of decline is widely shared in Europe and particularly in France, where this theme was recently taken up by Michel Onfray, who linked the decline of the West to a disintegration of the Christian cement. The inability to face environmental, social or technical challenges is largely linked to a moral crisis. To claim that it is possible to meet a major challenge such as global warming without effort or sacrifice is an illusion or a deception. It will be possible to accept a form of frugality only through an increase of consciousness. Similarly, a major conflict can be avoided only through dialogue, leaving out propaganda. Collapsology involves the risk of being complacent about what would be considered as unavoidable.To announce a future catastrophe is not enough, because it would correspond to the attitude denounced by Jean-Pierre Dupuy, preaching a "enlightened catastrophism", rather than a suicidal blindness. We must do everything to avoid collapse or the nuclear apocalypse and therefore become aware of the catastrophe that lurks, doing everything we can to avoid it.

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Dès les années 1970, un effondrement par épuisement des ressources naturelles a été envisagé dans le rapport Meadows qui portait sur les limites de la croissance. Plus récemment, le biologiste américain Jared Diamond a relié l’effondrement de différentes civilisations passées, représentées notamment par les anciens Mayas au Mexique, les Vikings installés au Groenland ou encore les habitants de l’île de Pâques, à un manque d’adaptation vis-à-vis d’un changement critique de leur environnement. La société globalisée actuelle pourrait connaitre le même sort, si elle ne parvient pas à surmonter les défis environnementaux auxquels elle est confrontée et notamment le défi majeur du réchauffement climatique.  Le thème de l’effondrement a suscité tout un courant de pensée, parfois qualifié de collapsologie. Ce sont en général les causes écologiques d’un effondrement qui sont retenues et analysées. Toutefois, d’autres causes pourraient également provoquer une fin catastrophique de la civilisation occidentale. L’un de ceux qui se sont penchés sur la question, Dmitry Orlov, distingue cinq stades d’effondrement : financier, commercial, politique, social et culturel. Selon cet auteur américain né en Russie, un effondrement semblable à celui qu’a connu l’URSS pourrait intervenir aux États-Unis, en raison d’une politique économique inadéquate dans le contexte du déclin des ressources pétrolières. Un effondrement pourrait également survenir à la suite d’un conflit mondial de grande ampleur, entraîné par une aggravation brutale des tensions géopolitiques internationales.

Vie et mort des civilisations / Life and death of civilizations

The future of the Western civilization appears presently as most uncertain. Already after the first World War, in 1919, Paul Valery was writing: "We, civilizations, know that we are mortal", while Oswald Spengler was publishing his book "The Decline of the West".  For Oswald Spengler, each civilization undergoes through birth, growth, aging and death. For him, a civilization is characterized by its abity to fulfill material objectives and differs from "culture", which corresponds to the initial blooming period. As a civilization becomes unable to reinvent its cultural foundations, it is bound to decay. Although the work of Spengler was criticized and discarded during a long period, his intuitions become quite relevant presently.  The concept of civilization has to be used with some care, as the idea of a "clash of civilizations" has been exploited by neoconservatists as an argument for promoting war and conflicts. The Western civilization has spread throughout the world, and the end of the Western civilization would be, to a large extent, the end of the present global civilization. Already in 1970, the Meadows report was predicting a collapse of the economy and demography, due to the lack of natural resources. The idea of a collapse due to ecological causes was later developed by Jared Diamond in his now famous book. Such a scenario was applied to the Western civilization by Eric M. Conway and Naomi Oreskes. A new thinking about a potential "collapse" is emerging presently. Ecological causes are not the only ones which can produce a collapse. Economic and political factors can also play a major role as explained by Dmtry Orlov. A major war, especially if it becomes nuclear, could also cause such a collapse. Besides all material causes, the present crisis of meaning and the incapacity of the West to reinvent its cultural and inner values is probably the most immediate and serious cause of collapse, as anticipated by Oswald Spengler. 

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Une question lancinante concerne l’avenir de la civilisation occidentale actuelle. Au lendemain de la Première guerre mondiale, des voix s’étaient déjà fait entendre en Europe pour évoquer les menaces à l’horizon. Paul Valéry écrivait : « Nous autres civilisations savons à présent que nous sommes mortelles » (La crise de l'esprit, 1919), tandis qu’Oswald Spengler publiait son ouvrage célèbre, quoique controversé, « Le déclin de l’Occident » (1918-1923). Pour Oswald Splengler, chaque civilisation passe par des phases successives de naissance, croissance, vieillesse et mort. Il opposait par ailleurs culture et civilisation, réservant le terme de civilisation à une société orientée vers des objectifs matériels, à l’image de la Rome antique. Devenant incapable de réinventer ses fondements culturels, toute civilisation est condamnée au déclin. Cette vision pessimiste de l’avenir a été oubliée en Occident, au cours de la longue période de prospérité économique qui a suivi la Seconde guerre Mondiale. La démarche d’Oswald Spengler, qui était fondée sur l’analogie vitaliste entre civilisations et organismes vivants, a été souvent jugée peu scientifique. Dans le contexte actuel, ses intuitions retrouvent néanmoins une actualité troublante.

Consommation d'énergie et type de civilisation / Energy consumption and type of civilization

The energy consumption has been often considered as a criterion for measuring the progress of a civilization. The russian scientist Kardhashev has proposed to use it for the identification of an extraterrestrial civilization. In a publication which goes back to 1964, by extrapolating the energy consumption of humanity, he anticipated that within100 to 200 years it would reach all the power received from the sun (between 10¹⁶ and 10¹⁷ W),  then, within 3200 years the whole power emitted by the sun (between 10²⁶and10²⁷ W)  and within 5800 years the power emitted by the whole galaxy (around 4.10³⁷ W).  He considers that extraterrestrial civilizations might have alrady reached such levels and considers that the fitst level corresponds to what he calls a type I civilization, the second level a type II civilization and the third level a type III civilization.   Such powers are so high that they might be detected from Earth.  The problem it raises stems from the extrapolatopn operated by Kadhashev, which is most uncertain. It appears clearly that it will be necessary to limit the energy demand growth in order to overcome major environmental challenges. Such powers are much higher than the radiative forcing due to GHG which is around 0,5 . 10¹⁵ W. Liberating the huge powers anticipated by Kadhashev would increase the temperature on Earth,  to levels uncompatible with life.Furthermore the manipulation of such amounsts of energy would be extremely dangerous and might rapidly cause a final deflagration, meaning the end of humanity. Advanced extraterrestrial civilizations would certainly be able to realize such problems and be wise enough for keeping their energy consumption at a reasonable level.

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La consommation d'énergie a été souvent citée comme une marque d'avancement d'une civilisation. Le scientifique russe Kardhashev a même proposé d'utiliser ce critère pour caractériser d'éventuelles civilisations extra-terrestres. Dans une publication qui remonte à 1964, extrapolant la consommation d'énergie de l'humanité à partir de l'évolution actuelle, il en déduit  qu'elle atteindra d'ici 100 à 200 ans toute la puissance reçue du soleil sur Terre, puis  dans 3200 ans la totalité de la puissance émise par le soleil (entre 10²⁶ et 10²⁷ W), et enfin dans 5800 ans la puissance émise par la galaxie toute entière. Il en déduit qu'une civilisation extra-terrestre plus avancée que la notre pourrait avoir déjà atteint ce niveau, ce qui lui permet de classer les civilisations en trois types: les civilisations de type I  seraient capables de maîtriser la puissance reçue par la Terre du soleil (entre 10¹⁶ et 10¹⁷ W), les civilisations de type II toute la puissance émise par le soleil (4.10²⁶ W),  les civilisations de type III toute la puissance émise par la galaxie(environ 4.10³⁷ W).

Comment vivre? / How to live?

"Le vent se lève, il faut tenter de vivre", "The Wind Rises, let us try to live", says Hayao Miyazaki, quoting Paul Valéry. In the face of conflits, illness and death, how to live? Miyazaki brings answers from an other age. Athough his story happens in Japan, it is often inspired by the values of the old Europe, which seem presently to have almost disappeared in Europe itself. Preserving culture and civilization is a first answer to the brutality we have to endure. Despite all their attempts, human beings do not control their fate and, quite often, their good intentions lead to mere disasters. The protections they build are fragile. The necessity dictates its will, to which men and women can only oppose their feelings and their dreams. Miyazaki achieves the miracle of making us feel very close to a character which we might have found hateful, as he has conceived murderous planes. Miyazaki shows that the most authentic dimension of life may be elsewhere. Beauty, poetry and the strength of feelings can bring a meaning to a precarious life and help them to escape from absurdity. His film is a tribute  to visionaries, innovators, all those who want to change life, but often fail.

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"Le vent se lève, il faut tenter de vivre", nous dit Hayao Miyazaki, citant Paul Valery. Face aux périls de la vie,  aux menaces de conflits, face à la maladie et à la mort, comment vivre? Miyazaki apporte des réponses d'un autre âge. Bien que le film se passe au Japon, on pense à la vieille Europe, à  une culture et des manières de vivre qui ont quasiment disparu. Miyazaki montre ainsi la diversité, mais en même temps l'unité des cultures, qui tissent des liens entre des hommes de différents pays et de différentes origines. Préserver la culture et la civilisation est ainsi une des toutes premières réponses à la brutalité du monde extérieur. Confronté au caractère tragique de l'existence, l'homme ne maîtrise pas son destin, ses meilleures intentions se retournent contre lui. Face à l'adversité ses défenses sont fragiles. Il ne peut opposer aux contraintes de la réalité que ses sentiments et la puissance de ses rêves. Le miracle du film de Miyazaki est ainsi de nous rendre infiniment proche le destin d'un personnage que nous pourrions vouloir rejeter, car il a conçu des avions meurtriers. Mais Miyazaki montre que la dimension la plus authentique de notre vie est ailleurs. La beauté, la poésie, la force des sentiments animent une existence chétive. Son film est aussi un hommage aux visionnaires, aux innovateurs, à tous ceux qui voudraient pouvoir changer la vie, mais ne réussissent pas toujours.

Le soleil se lève à l'est / The sun rises in the east

China and India have been very soon civilization cradles. In Europe what is often called the "Western" civilization was iniated at the East of Europe, in the Near and Middle East. The economic (but also cultural) center of gravity of this civilization then migrated progressively towards the West, first Greece and Rome, then France and the United Kingdom. The discovery of America during the Renaissance period shifted even further towards the West this center of gravity.United States have become the center of a global Empire, linked by communication and exchange networks. As history is cyclic and the Earth is round, a reverse movement has started  The economic center of gravity now progresses eastwards and follows a reverse path as shown by Richard Dobbs and al., with a striking diagram published in the Mc Kinsey Global Institute Report: "Urban World Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class". Still, this economic shift is not yet followed in the cultural area, as the center of gravity of our "World civilization" clearly remains in the West for the time being. But this situation is probably only temporary.

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La Chine et l'Inde ont été très tôt des foyers de civilisation. En Europe, c'est en Orient, au Proche et Moyen-Orient, ainsi qu'en Egypte que la civilisation souvent qualifiée d'"occidentale" a commencé à se développer. Le centre de gravité économique (mais aussi culturel) de cette civilisation a ensuite migré vers la Grèce, puis Rome et enfin la France et la Grande-Bretagne, en un mouvement continu de déplacement vers l'Ouest. Les grandes expéditions maritimes et la découverte de l'Amérique au cours de l'époque de la Renaissance ont encore déplacé bien plus loin ce centre de gravité, toujours plus à l'ouest de l'Europe. Les Etats-Unis se sont retrouvés au centre d'un nouvel Empire mondial contrôlé par un réseau de communications, d'échange et d'influence.

Vers un effondrement de la civilisation? / Towards a collapse of civilization?

In the future, a collapse of the human civilization might result from the irreversible destruction of the environment. It has been shown that ecosystems can become unstable beyond a critical threshold. Some scientists consider that a comparatively rapid transition of the biosphere might occur, beyond a certain value of the earth soil fraction, which is devoted to human activities. This fraction reaches already  43%. It might reach 50% in 2025 and 70% in 2060. A critical threshold might be reached before 2050. A rapiddegradation of the biosphere would lead to a  sudden drop of biodiversity and human population. Humanity might enter into a new Dark Age. Such a scenario, although possible, is still far from certain. The future will depend of the road chosen by humanity.

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Dans l’avenir, un effondrement au niveau planétaire pourrait être causé par  une destruction irréversible de l’environnement. On a pu montrer qu’un changement brutal peut affecter les écosystèmes à partir du moment où un seuil critique est franchi.

   Certains scientifiques estiment que la biosphère pourrait être affectée par une transition relativement rapide, entraînant une extinction massive des espèces biologiques et une progression spectaculaire de la désertification, au dessus d’une valeur critique de la fraction des sols occupés par l’homme, pour ses besoins, que ce soit l’habitat, l’agriculture ou encore d’autres usages. Cette fraction est déjà d’au moins 43%. Elle pourrait s’élever à 50% en 2025 et à 70% d’ici 2060. Le seuil critique pourrait être atteint avant 2050.