As early as the 1970s, a collapse by depletion of natural resources was considered in the Meadows Report about the limits to growth. More recently, Jared Diamond has linked the collapse of various past civilizations, represented in particular by the ancient Mayans in Mexico, the Vikings living in Greenland or the inhabitants of Easter Island, to a lack of adaptation to a critical change in their environment. Our current globalized society could suffer the same fate, if it fails to overcome the environmental challenges it faces, including the major challenge of global warming. The theme of collapse sparked a whole current of thought, sometimes called collapsology. It is usually the ecological causes of a collapse that are retained and analyzed. However, other causes could also cause a catastrophic end of the Western civilization. One of those who has studied the issue, Dmitry Orlov, distinguishes five stages of collapse: financial, commercial, political, social and cultural. According to this American author born in Russia, a collapse similar to that experienced by the USSR could occur in the United States, due to an inadequate economic policy in the context of the decline of oil resources. A collapse could also occur as a result of a major global conflict, resulting in a sharp worsening of international geopolitical tensions. By taking a step back, we can link a collapse to three main causes, related to an ecological, social or moral crisis,. The ecological crisis leading to a lack of resources is the one studied by Jared Diamond, and this is the most widespread theme investigated today. A crisis of the social organization is the one advanced by Tainter, notably to explain the fall of the Roman Empire. According to Tainter, increasing complexity in a vast empire is becoming more and more difficult to control and is leading to a growing share of unproductive spending. This thesis is in fact unconvincing, because the entire evolution of modern society has relied on a prodigious rise in complexity. It has even been shown that complexity and material prosperity are largely related. Finally, a third type of explanation is linked to a decline, associated with a moral crisis. Such an analysis has been done in the past by authors as prestigious as the historian Arnold Toynbee, the thinker of civilizations Oswald Splengler or the sociologist Pitirim Sorokin. The fear of decline is widely shared in Europe and particularly in France, where this theme was recently taken up by Michel Onfray, who linked the decline of the West to a disintegration of the Christian cement. The inability to face environmental, social or technical challenges is largely linked to a moral crisis. To claim that it is possible to meet a major challenge such as global warming without effort or sacrifice is an illusion or a deception. It will be possible to accept a form of frugality only through an increase of consciousness. Similarly, a major conflict can be avoided only through dialogue, leaving out propaganda. Collapsology involves the risk of being complacent about what would be considered as unavoidable.To announce a future catastrophe is not enough, because it would correspond to the attitude denounced by Jean-Pierre Dupuy, preaching a "enlightened catastrophism", rather than a suicidal blindness. We must do everything to avoid collapse or the nuclear apocalypse and therefore become aware of the catastrophe that lurks, doing everything we can to avoid it.
Dès les années 1970, un effondrement par épuisement des ressources naturelles a été envisagé dans le rapport Meadows qui portait sur les limites de la croissance. Plus récemment, le biologiste américain Jared Diamond a relié l’effondrement de différentes civilisations passées, représentées notamment par les anciens Mayas au Mexique, les Vikings installés au Groenland ou encore les habitants de l’île de Pâques, à un manque d’adaptation vis-à-vis d’un changement critique de leur environnement. La société globalisée actuelle pourrait connaitre le même sort, si elle ne parvient pas à surmonter les défis environnementaux auxquels elle est confrontée et notamment le défi majeur du réchauffement climatique. Le thème de l’effondrement a suscité tout un courant de pensée, parfois qualifié de collapsologie. Ce sont en général les causes écologiques d’un effondrement qui sont retenues et analysées. Toutefois, d’autres causes pourraient également provoquer une fin catastrophique de la civilisation occidentale. L’un de ceux qui se sont penchés sur la question, Dmitry Orlov, distingue cinq stades d’effondrement : financier, commercial, politique, social et culturel. Selon cet auteur américain né en Russie, un effondrement semblable à celui qu’a connu l’URSS pourrait intervenir aux États-Unis, en raison d’une politique économique inadéquate dans le contexte du déclin des ressources pétrolières. Un effondrement pourrait également survenir à la suite d’un conflit mondial de grande ampleur, entraîné par une aggravation brutale des tensions géopolitiques internationales.
