L'avenir en question / Our Future at Stake

« Our Future at Stake » presents new views about the way to address some of the major challenges humanity has to deal with: rarefaction of resources, global warming, and economic crisis. Solutions are described for preserving natural resources and environment, while still following the evolution towards an increased complexity and a more interconnected world. A global transition towards a worldshift is required, involving major changes in economy and the social life. Innovation and creativity represent major assets for ensuring a successful transition, which is needed for avoiding a global collapse.The following topics are covered in the book:

    

   In the first chapter, the current situation is assessed and discussed. The present organization of the world economic system appears as non sustainable. Environment degradation, loss of biodiversity, local pollution, rarefaction of natural resources and global warming lead to a major risk of collapse at a global level, if appropriate decisions are not taken in due time.  

Disruptive changes are needed, in order to provide appropriate solutions to the present economic, social and environmental challenges.

In Chapter 2, the required changes are presented and analysed. These changes involve       transformations    not only of the technologies which are used and of the economic system, but also of the way of life.  The progress of scientific knowledge and environmental constraints represent the main factors of transformation in the future. Considering each of these two factors can lead to a very different vision.

      A first view, which is presented in Chapter 3, is based upon the idea that technological progress will be able to solve the problems which are encountered by the human society. For those who support this view, Nanotechnologies, Biotechnologies together with the technologies of Information and Cognition (NBIC) converge towards a new paradigm, which will enable humanity to overcome the main problems it encounters. From an extrapolation of the trends occurring in the digital world, a boundless expansion or even a “Singularity” is expected.

    A more pessimistic view is held by others who fear that technology could lead to an irreversible destruction of our environment, which would mean that human civilization will be brought to an end. In order to remain within the limits which are imposed by nature, they consider that the priority is to reduce our needs and our consumption level. This vision of “degrowth” is presented in Chapter 4. It is often advocated in Europe, where the fears concerning technological risks are the most widespread.

In order to reduce the level of the risks to be encountered, the degrowth movement followers recommend to limit the consumption of energy and raw materials, while raising the efforts to protect the environment.

     It seems legitimate to try to conciliate the economic progress with environment protection.  The possibility of following in the future a path which takes in account both these factors is discussed in Chapter 5. In fact, it seems possible to decouple to a large extent the pursuit of the economic progress from a growth of the consumption of natural resources. The progression towards an increasing complexity will continue, due to a continuous increase of knowledge and the permanent creation of new devices. Society will also continue to evolve through the formation of new links between people and also new connections with surrounding devices.

Such an evolution can remain compatible with the environment preservation, if it does not imply a similar progression of the GDP and of the consumption of natural resources.

      The development of new links at the planetary level can help to a better understanding between people and to a development of collective intelligence. The implications of such a transformation are considered in Chapter 6. It leads to a more complex world, by helping to create new structures and organizations worldwide. It can contribute also to bring more democracy and more empathy between citizens from different nations.

    The evolution resulting from scientific and technological progress can help to build a knowledge and creation society, which is described in Chapter 7. This increased knowledge will help to understand the major issues facing humanity and to find the appropriate solutions. The role of creativity will increase in all areas and will help to achieve personal fulfilment. Thus, it will contribute to the set up of a more open and collaborative society, no more driven only by the search of profit.  

      In order to achieve an evolution operating in symbiotic relationship with the environment, an appropriate policy must be defined and implemented, as it is not possible to rely only upon the market mechanism. Such a policy implies to reduce the consumption of non renewable resources and to get as close as possible to a “zero waste” situation. 

The means which are needed for preserving natural resources are reviewed in Chapter 8. They include the different options for reducing the consumption of non renewable raw materials, recycling used materials whenever possible, achieving an integration of energy and mass fluxes and optimizing the use of bio resources.

     The supply of energy from a sustainable source is in any case needed, as energy can only be partially recycled, due to the production of entropy. A first priority is to reduce the energy consumption by accepting a less energy intensive way of life and by improving the effectiveness of the use of energy. Low carbon energy sources are required. Nuclear and renewable energy sources are reviewed in Chapter 9. The possibility of accelerating the transition towards renewable energy sources is assessed. The use of wind and solar energy sources is presently limited due to the fact that they are intermittent and provide comparatively low energy fluxes. The present developments in the area of new materials and nanotechnologies could help to induce future progress, especially in the areas of the photovoltaic conversion of solar energy and energy storage, thus helping to achieve a global transition towards renewable energy sources. As energy production will be more distributed, “smart” grids will be required at a large scale.

      The consequences of such future changes upon the way of life are examined in Chapter 10. The issues of urbanism, environment and new economic activities require a systemic approach.

New urban concepts aim at a better integration of housing within the environment, but also at creating new links between inhabitants and at helping creativity and self-actualization. The city of tomorrow will be an eco-city, but also an intelligent city, which will bring to its inhabitants a wide range of opportunities for interaction and creation. It will become a reality, only if our society is able to eliminate slum cities, where poverty and violence predominate.  

     Scenarios for future evolution are presented in Chapter 11. The global outcome remains uncertain, as human and geopolitical factors are highly unpredictable. It is only by taking into account the general interest, that it will be possible to ensure a sustainable (viable) future. Otherwise, conflicts of growing intensity can be expected, resulting in a major breakdown. Ignoring the need for an increased complexity would generate a similar outcome.  

The efforts required for overcoming the major threats and achieving a WorldShift are huge but factors of hope remain, as a planetary consciousness is emerging. In any case, urgent changes are needed which require an international cooperation. The possibility of achieving these changes remains challenging. On the other hand, the transformations to be accomplished represent major opportunities, if they are undertaken rapidly enough.

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La crise actuelle apparait de plus en plus comme la crise d'un système, confirmant le diagnostic exprimé dans l'ouvrage "L'avenir en question"

 Tandis que le progrès technique s’accélère à un rythme vertigineux, la crise économique et financière s’accompagne d’une grave crise écologique et d’une raréfaction des ressources naturelles.

Or,  des solutions existent pour assurer la préservation des ressources et de l’environnement, tout en poursuivant l’évolution vers un monde de plus en plus interconnecté et complexe.

Pour y parvenir, il est nécessaire d’engager une transition globale, impliquant des changements profonds dans l’économie et les modes de vie. Cette transition doit L’innovation et la créativité constituent les atouts essentiels pour réussir cette transition et échapper ainsi à l’effondrement qui nous menace.