Ce blog rassemble des informations et des réflexions sur l'avenir qui nous attend.

This blog presents informations and views about the future.

mardi 26 juillet 2011

Holons


The concept of "holon" has been introduced by Arthur Koestler for describing systems which are able to operate in an autonomous fashion, but which can be assembled within a wider system. A system can therefore include successive levels of assembly. Such a concept is therefore directly connected to the theory of complexity. It can be applied to a wide range of systems: living organisms, but also machines, which include components which are composed of smaller components. Like the concept of "memes", the concept of "holons" is somewhat dangerous, as it can lead to a pseudo-scientific way of thinking, which can even become quite irrational.
An illustration of such a risk appears when reading "A brief history of everything" by Ken Wilber. The Twenty tenets which he presents in the Appendix of his book for describing holons seem inspired by the vision of "hypostasis"  from neo-platonicism, rather than by a scientific vision.  "Reality as a whole...is composed of holons". "Holons display...self-preservation, self-trancendence and self-dissolution"." Each successive level of evolution produces greater depth and less span". "The greater the depth of a holon, the greater its degree of consciousness"

Le terme de holon a été introduit par Arthur Koestler pour désigner des systèmes capables de fonctionner de façon autonome, mais qui s'assemblent dans un système plus vaste. Un système peut ainsi comprendre plusieurs niveaux de complexité, chaque niveau d'ordre n  faisant interagir des sous-systèmes (holons) d'ordre n-1. Ce concept qui est directement relié à la notion de complexité ne pose pas de problème majeur d'interprétation. 

lundi 25 juillet 2011

Mèmes et mémétique / Memes and memetics

The concept of memes has been introduced by Richard Dawkins in 1976. It is already a comparatively old concept, but it is only recently that it has met a wide success, largely due to the fact that it helps to give a scientific flavour to any analysis about the evolution of cultures or societies. It is based  upon an analogy with the concept of genes, considering that ideas and opinions can be transmitted and combined like genes. An opinion propagates through the transmission of a "meme" like an epidemy through the transmission of a virus. As the pyschic world is complex, it has been necessary to distinguish diferent btypes of memes and for instance to introduce the concept of "vmemes" for the memes of value.
Richard Dawkins is a brilliant scientist, but the concept of memes corresponds to his reductionnist and materialistic views. It seems much too schematic and mecanistic, at a time when scientists try to understand more deeply the reality of conscience. Therefore, memetics as a scientific theory might become outdated, precisely at the time when it has at last reached a wide audience.

La notion de mème a été introduite par Richard Dawkins en 1976. Elle est donc déjà  ancienne, mais son succès est relativement récent et se trouve à présent fréquemment citée, du fait qu'elle permet de donner une tournure scientifique à tout discours portant sur l'évolution des cultures ou des sociétés.
Le concept de mème s'appuie sur une analogie avec celui des gènes. Il consiste à considérer que les idées et les opinions se transmettent et se combinent comme les gènes et que c'est un tel mécanisme qui peut expliquer l'évolution des mentalités et des cultures. Les mécanismes de sélection naturelle s'appliquent dès lors aux idées,

dimanche 24 juillet 2011

Les grandes représentations du monde et de l'économie de René Passet

The book written by René Passet presenting the "Worldwiews" and their relationship with the economy during the ages is a remarkable essay inspired by an interdisciplinary approach, associating economy, history and philosophy. The four Parts of the book describe the successive phases of the history of humanity.  The first deals with the age of myths until the development of the scientific thinking. The second shows how at the age of the philosophers of the XVIIIth century, the world is viewed as a clock, governed by newtonian laws. The third explains how at the age of the industrial Revolution , the economy has been inspired by thermodynamics. The fourth and last part analyzes the mutations which have occured at the information age, the growing role of complexity and the need for a bioeconomic approach.

L'ouvrage de René Passet sur les grandes représentations du monde et de l'économie est un remarquable essai conçu selon une démarche transdisciplinaire, qui montre comment l'organisation de l'économie est étroitement associée à une représentation du monde. Les quatre grandes parties de l'ouvrage couvrent quatre périodes succeives de l'histoire de l'humanité:

Complexité et résilience/ Complexity and resilience

The model of adaptative cycles  shows that in the case of an ecosystem such as a forest, the increasing complexing due to a growing interconnection between the different parts of the ecosystem during its development, leads to a loss of resilience, which  results in its final destruction. Is this also what happens in the case of human societies? Joseph Tainter has supported the idea that the increase of complexity is one of the major factors contributing to the collapse of civilizations and has interpreted in such terms the fall of the Roman Empire. In fact, it is a matter of choice. If the complexity is driven only by the will to maximize the exploitation of the environment, it contributes to a loss of resilience. But an improved resilience can also be decided. It implies more diversity, a lower consumption of natural or external resources, more redundacies, storage options. Increasing the resilence contributes to increase the complexity and the two concepts are therfore not contradictory, but increasing resilience has a cost. It can be only the result of a deliberate choice for reducing the risk of final collapse.

Le modèle des cycles adaptatifs de Holling montre que dans le cas d'un écosystème tel qu'une forêt, l'interconnexion croissante entre les différentes parties de l'écosystème, qui accompagne son développement, se traduit par une perte de résilience qui conduit à la destruction de l'écosystème, avant sa reconstitution. Dans ce cas, la croissance de la complexité, résultant de l'interconnexion croissante entre les différentes parties du système, conduit donc à une perte de résilience. La question se pose dès lors de savoir s'il en est de même dans le cas d'un système technico-économique: la progression inéluctable de la complexité au cours du développement du système, le conduit-t-elle  inéluctablement à rendre le système fragile et peu résilient?

samedi 23 juillet 2011

Panarchie et resilience /Panarchy and resilience

Buzz Holling has introduced the concept of adaptative cycles for describing the evolution of ecosystems such as forests. He has generalized the concept, including even human activities. Panarchy has been coined for describing a way of organizing ecosystems and society according to such adaptative cycles, embeded at different levels. The question it raises is to know whether such a model can really describe the behaviour of a human society, which is able to anticipate the consequences of its actions. The development of our socities seems to follow successives waves, rather than the repetition of cycles. Thus, as advocates Ervin Laszlo, our priority should be to maximise the resilience of our environment, and thus to accept to change our behaviour, for preserving our environment which ungoes multiple cycles, but changes much more slowly than human societies.

Buzz Holling, un scientifique canadien, s'est rendu célèbre pour sa théorie des cycles adaptatifs. Cette théorie a été initialement développée à partir de l'analyse de l'évolution des forêts. Lorsque qu'une forêts se développe, les interactions entre les différentes composantes de l'écosystème qu'elle constitue se multiplient. Chacun des composants tend à se spécialiser. L'écosystème parvient ainsi à mieux utiliser l'ensemble des ressources dont il dispose, mais en même temps, il devient plus fragile. Cette perte de résilience le rend plus vulnérable à des catastrophes naturelles telles qu'incendie ou insectes prédateurs. Il en résulte à un certain moment une destruction de l'écosystème, qui doit ensuite se reconstituer progressivement pour rétablir son captal de développement et relever le niveau de résilience. D'après Holling et d'autres chercheurs qui ont

dimanche 3 juillet 2011

La financiarisation menace-t-elle l'avenir? / Financialization: a threat for the future?

Financialization represents a growing threat for our economy. The volume of financial transactions has grown far beyond the real economy. In the past, the industrial capitalist was helping to create more value by investing. Now, the financial economy, which is mainly focused on speculative gains is destroying value. Crisis and price volatility are the best oppotunities for making profit, for those who can manipulate the system.  There is a growing risk that,  if such a system goes on, many countries will be in the same situation as Greece in the near future.

La financiarisation représente-t-elle une menace pour l'avenir? Le néolibéralisme des années Thatcher et Reagan a produit une nouvelle forme de capitalisme, dont l'évolution est porteuse de risques considérables pour l'avenir.

Transition vers la société de création / Transition towards the creation society


The role of creation becomes more and more important. In the future, it might contribute to modify the system of values, by transfering the power presently associated with finance to the power of knowledge and creation. 
Self actualization might be provided by creativity rather by goods consumption.

La place de la création devient de plus en plus importante. Elle conduit à diversifier constamment les objets et les concepts disponibles et contribue à faire croître la complexité du système technico-économique, en lui permettant ainsi de surmonter les défis auxquels il est confronté